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 Post subject: Future of dairying
PostPosted: Sat Feb 13, 2016 6:02 pm 
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Is there one?

The farms with a mix of enterprises may be able to weather the storm but those who are milk only farms, getting rid of bull calves and only rearing replacements, with other possible incomes only being sheep wintering/grazing, if they aren't on a premium supply contract with Tesco, Co-op or Sainsbury, I can't see any mid term future for them once they have blown all their savings or hit their limit with the bank.

Truly sad state of affairs that can all be remedied by 10p onto a bottle of milk in the shops.

I also think there has to be a re-introduction of milk quotas (only trade able by those with adult livestock registered on their holdings)

the knock on of this could be fatal if the market doesn't improve soon.

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 Post subject: Re: Future of dairying
PostPosted: Sat Feb 13, 2016 6:18 pm 
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In my opinion it's ffuked.

All the protests in the world will only make the people doing it feel better for a couple of hours
The trouble as I understand it is there is just too much production units are getting bigger and more efficient which just leads to too much milk.
I know of a place or two that are selling for 10 /15 p a little less than the cost of production, there answer is to expand and lower the cost of production

Tesco increasing the price it sells for is a nice idea but won't happen


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 Post subject: Re: Future of dairying
PostPosted: Sat Feb 13, 2016 6:33 pm 
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It's all down to the commodity price of milk powder, there's too much milk globally so it's a buyers market, no amount of protesting is going to change anything. Farmers could however work together to develop products that add valve to their milk and thus set their own price, but they won't and will have to take the market value.

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 Post subject: Re: Future of dairying
PostPosted: Sun Feb 14, 2016 9:36 am 
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I know nothing about the dairy sector at all, but I do realise that the price of milk is too low and does not cover the cost of production.

At the moment, it is difficult to see how the small family dairy farm can survive - and that is true of small family farms in other sectors too. Most commodities are not in short supply - in fact, wherever you look, in all sectors of agriculture, or iron and steel, or most manufacturing industries there is a glut of produce.

Only the service sector seems to be OK, and that cannot go on for ever.

I believe that I said in a thread concerning predictions for the new year, a few weeks ago, that I thought there might be another world crisis and possibly another 'crash' or severe monetary concerns. Sadly, it is looking more likely as time goes on.

I hope I'm wrong, but 'events, dear boy, events', as Harold MacMillan said, are what drives the world economy - and we can never foresee with any great accuracy what those events are and when they might strike.

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 Post subject: Re: Future of dairying
PostPosted: Sun Feb 14, 2016 9:44 am 
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I seriously do not know where the nearest farm to me is that actually still milks.
There's certainly nothing within an eight mile radius.
Five miles away is a dairy that cost over two million pounds to build twenty years ago. And was mothballed about two years after completion. It's seriously huge. But empty!
I sometimes wonder where the milk comes from that is in my fridge.

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 Post subject: Re: Future of dairying
PostPosted: Sun Feb 14, 2016 9:50 am 
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There are a couple of herds that I can think of that are near to me.
One runs a thriving cafe/play park and ice-cream parlour.

In fact I can now think of three within 20 miles that do the same and have successful ice-cream businesses.
Would they survive without it ?
Doubtful.

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 Post subject: Re: Future of dairying
PostPosted: Sun Feb 14, 2016 11:23 am 
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The Pretender wrote:
It's all down to the commodity price of milk powder, there's too much milk globally so it's a buyers market, no amount of protesting is going to change anything. Farmers could however work together to develop products that add valve to their milk and thus set their own price, but they won't and will have to take the market value.

That's about it Pret. :?

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 Post subject: Re: Future of dairying
PostPosted: Sun Feb 14, 2016 6:16 pm 
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I often think how chasing yield in what ever you grow is ultimately futile. The more you grow the less it ends up being worth.

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 Post subject: Re: Future of dairying
PostPosted: Sun Feb 14, 2016 7:31 pm 
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Behind it all there is an element of greed. Basically all boils down to that.

I have a number of friends still milking the same number of cows they have for last 20 years, and with efficiency and breeding producing maybe 5-10% more milk.

There are also the herd which have seen upto a 100% increase in size, 50% increase in yield and they have to carry the can for the downturn.

Ironically with the highest level of borrowing and exposing the banks to the most risk, they will be the ones who survive at the expense of the traditionally sized farms.

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 Post subject: Re: Future of dairying
PostPosted: Sun Feb 14, 2016 10:06 pm 
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dust n diesel wrote:
Behind it all there is an element of greed. Basically all boils down to that.

I have a number of friends still milking the same number of cows they have for last 20 years, and with efficiency and breeding producing maybe 5-10% more milk.

There are also the herd which have seen upto a 100% increase in size, 50% increase in yield and they have to carry the can for the downturn.

Ironically with the highest level of borrowing and exposing the banks to the most risk, they will be the ones who survive at the expense of the traditionally sized farms.

Seeing lots of dispersal sales coming on the books now.
We're not in a dairy area - just 5 more in 10 mile radius, with 1 of them making artisan cheeses.

I'd slightly disagree with you DnD.
Most increases in yield are to maintain level of milk chq to cover outgoings.
The ones to survive will be the traditional farms - a lot of them are First Milk suppliers & after the years of poor milk prices will be the most 'efficient' producers, with a few beef/sheep, wife with off-farm work & knowing nothing else but the lifestyle that goes with 'dairy'.
Those with the highest level of borrowing and exposure to the banks, will be the ones most at risk & just waiting to see at which point the bank calls time.
Those employing staff will feel the pinch sooner too. Breeding your own workforce is the cheaper option!


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 Post subject: Re: Future of dairying
PostPosted: Sun Feb 14, 2016 10:30 pm 
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The Squire wrote:
dust n diesel wrote:
Those employing staff will feel the pinch sooner too. Breeding your own workforce is the cheaper option!

Unfortunately, from a business point of view, if that's the only way to make it pay, it's not a stand-alone business.
Where has this country gone wrong ?

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 Post subject: Re: Future of dairying
PostPosted: Sun Feb 14, 2016 10:37 pm 
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Lord Muck wrote:
The Squire wrote:
dust n diesel wrote:
Those employing staff will feel the pinch sooner too. Breeding your own workforce is the cheaper option!

Unfortunately, from a business point of view, if that's the only way to make it pay, it's not a stand-alone business.
Where has this country gone wrong ?

Not saying it's only way to make it pay, just saying in this current economic situation, if you've not got 'wages' to pay, then you've more chances of still being profitable!


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 Post subject: Re: Future of dairying
PostPosted: Sun Feb 14, 2016 10:42 pm 
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The Squire wrote:
Lord Muck wrote:
The Squire wrote:
dust n diesel wrote:
Those employing staff will feel the pinch sooner too. Breeding your own workforce is the cheaper option!

Unfortunately, from a business point of view, if that's the only way to make it pay, it's not a stand-alone business.
Where has this country gone wrong ?

Not saying it's only way to make it pay, just saying in this current economic situation, if you've not got 'wages' to pay, then you've more chances of still being profitable!


Do your boys not draw an income from the farm?

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 Post subject: Re: Future of dairying
PostPosted: Sun Feb 14, 2016 10:47 pm 
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The Squire wrote:
Lord Muck wrote:
The Squire wrote:
dust n diesel wrote:
Those employing staff will feel the pinch sooner too. Breeding your own workforce is the cheaper option!

Unfortunately, from a business point of view, if that's the only way to make it pay, it's not a stand-alone business.
Where has this country gone wrong ?

Not saying it's only way to make it pay, just saying in this current economic situation, if you've not got 'wages' to pay, then you've more chances of still being profitable!

Yes but how is that good ?
Why are we in a situation where that's one of the only ways to make a profit ?

We'll be sailing down to the Cape next and bagging a few darkies as cheap staff...

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 Post subject: Re: Future of dairying
PostPosted: Sun Feb 14, 2016 10:55 pm 
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The Pretender wrote:
The Squire wrote:
Lord Muck wrote:
The Squire wrote:
dust n diesel wrote:
Those employing staff will feel the pinch sooner too. Breeding your own workforce is the cheaper option!

Unfortunately, from a business point of view, if that's the only way to make it pay, it's not a stand-alone business.
Where has this country gone wrong ?

Not saying it's only way to make it pay, just saying in this current economic situation, if you've not got 'wages' to pay, then you've more chances of still being profitable!


Do your boys not draw an income from the farm?

Yes, but they'd get more, for their skills & ability if they worked elsewhere ... with what you'd say was better hours, etc.


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